Food Safety: Microbial

Use cutting-edge modelling data and cloud computing to develop safer foods faster and more cost-effectively than ever before.

Microbial Growth, Stability and Exposure Modelling

We provide cutting edge models and services for the analysis of bacterial behaviour in food products.

The growth of microorganisms in food products is affected by environmental conditions such as temperature of storage, water activity, acidity and humidity. The development of predictive models for your products and experimental data can help you control the safety of the product and minimize the risk of microbial contamination.

Making decisions about the safety of the product can be difficult, especially if environmental conditions vary during the production and/or storage period.

Challenges We Solve

  • Challenge: Using a worst case scenario methodology creates unrealistic results.
    Solution: Simulate actual presence in a probabilistic manner to reflect actual consumer habits & practices.
  • Challenge: Access to data.
    Solution: Access to our cleaned data. Nationally representative consumption Data from the US, EU, China, Brazil, Mexico, etc.
  • Challenge: A food company is unsure about the impact of ingredient/additive usage in a food or packaging material.
    Solution: Simulate a bespoke scenario with and without the usage and compare the two.
  • Challenge: A competent authority is unsure of who are most at risk of exceeding exposure limits are.
    Solution: Bespoke analysis can determine intakes per age, sex, BMI, health status including pregnancy, smoking etc and easily identify who are the high consumers with the highest exposures.
  • Challenge: Controlling bacteria in the food supply from farm to fork including maximising shelf life.
    Solution: Our models and data can inform every step of the process.
  • Challenge: Ensuring both food processing and storage conditions control pathogens.
    Solution: We can predict pathogen growth under different conditions like temperature.

Important Questions

When combined with the right data,we can help you answer the important questions.

  • In what conditions should the product be produced and stored in order to minimize the growth of considered microorganisms?
  • How do the microorganisms respond to the environmental conditions?
  • What is the optimal length of the shelf-life?
  • What temperature should the product be stored in?
  • What controlling factors should be applied in order to minimize the risk of pathogen growth? Models can be used to either select one controlling factor (i.e. use water activity to control the growth of pathogens) or use multiple factors simultaneously.
  • Which product formulations are most likely to give rise to bacterial growth and under which conditions?

Microbial Growth Modelling

We develop user friendly software where users can test how changing factors affect the growth of the pathogen in a product. Models are unique to your experimental, laboratory and study data.

Our models include:

  1. Determination of factors (temperature, pH, water activity) required to inhibit development of pathogens.
  2. Fitting growth models to experimental data- modelling of the lag, exponential, stationary and death phase (Primary Models).
  3. Growth simulation given food and factors (temp, pH, aw). Factors can be either constant or vary over time (Secondary Models).
  4. Modelling of bacterial decay and thermal inactivation models.

Microbial Stability

Experimental data can be modelled and mined to take full advantage of what can be learned from the data. When experimental and study data is provided which clearly defines the stability of a product (i.e. the product is considered stable for a particular combination of additives etc., but unstable for some other), we can develop a predictive model which interpolates between different input variables and provides the probability that the analysed product is stable.

Experimental Design

The efficiency of experiments and predictive models is highly dependent on the quality of the collected data. Inappropriate experimental design could result in misleading or incorrect conclusions. The amount of data required for the development of predictive models depends on the purposes of analysis. This is why it is important to have an idea of questions to be answered prior to collection of the experimental or study data. Creme Global has experience in providing expert advice on the methods for data collection:

Experimental design
This is a key step in obtaining meaningful results. The correct choice of design will minimize the noise in the data and as result provide best possible estimates of parameters. The advice will cover the recommended experiment period duration, the time points for data collection as well as the number of replicates at each time point.

Environmental conditions
We provide expert advice on selection of the most appropriate combinations of environmental conditions. For instance, in order to predict the growth in varying temperatures, the experiment should be carried out for a range of temperatures. The range of temperatures will vary depending on the microorganism and the product considered.

The recommended experimental design is summarised in a detailed report.

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA)

QMRA requires knowledge of both the hazard and the exposure. Creme Global has extensive experience in risk assessment modelling and software. Predicted microbial concentrations in foods can be linked to food consumption and dose response models using our software Creme Food Safety. This produces a more complete profile of risk and allows for better decision making and focusing of resources in risk mitigation.

Data Collection & Management

  • Centralise and house all food safety data in the cloud and on one application.
  • Collate, capture and validate data across the supply chain at all points in the farm-to-fork continuum with our expert services and domain knowledge.
  • Trend and analyse data over time and space, develop predictive models and understand where vulnerabilities lie.
  • Data collection and data portal development for sensitive and commercial data.
  • Use Creme Global as a trusted third party for gathering industry-wide data at a trade association level.

Technical Services

  • Use our in-house expert team of food and data scientists to address specific questions relevant to you.
  • Avail of custom and bespoke statistical analyses and exploratory model development.
  • Partner with us on scientific analysis, expert elicitation, literature reviews and scientific publication writing.

We Work With


  • “Leading global companies in multiple industries rely on our models and software”

12 of the top 15 food companies, 7 of the top 10 cosmetics and personal care companies, and 6 of the top 10 chemicals companies use our software to better understand their products and their impact on consumers.


  • “Regulators across 3 continents deploy our safety platforms in decision making”

Governments use our software to aid in creating regulations and in communicating with industry on safety. Our platforms give a shared point of reference.


  • “Leading academic institutes are our partners in research”

Academia use our software to greatly increase the speed and viability of research projects into food safety, nutrition and human health. Our platforms are flexible, allowing for a broad range of applications in research.


Related Product

Creme Food Safety

Understand aggregate exposure, a key factor in food safety assessments

Expert Models

Publish models, run simulations, collaborate with your team, work with data - all within a simple UI

Case Study: Hawkins

Predictive Models and Software for Listeria Monocytogenes in Ready-To-Eat Meats with varying Antimicrobial use.